For all the regime's announcements of an imminent victory in Aleppo, it is important to remember the very significant obstacles. Many of these are in fact the same that prevented the regime from
ousting the rebels from the city in summer 2012.
First, the main concentration of regime forces is a considerable distance from Aleppo and is largely isolated due to rebel efforts to sever its supply lines. The closest significant concentration of regime forces is in Idlib city, but those troops are mostly cut off from the south. Therefore, any serious advance on Aleppo would have to come from the main concentration of loyalist forces in the core. The closest realistic staging point for these forces to advance northward would be from Hama governorate.
There are, in effect, two ways that the regime can reach Aleppo in force. The first involves a thrust northward along the M5 highway from Hama. The M5 highway would offer the regime the best supply infrastructure leading to the city, greatly alleviating the logistical burden necessary to support a considerable mechanized advance on Aleppo. However, there are a large number of significant rebel positions along this route. The advancing force would have to pass through northern Hama governorate; Maarat al-Nuaman and Saraqeb, Idlib governorate; and Khan Tuman and Khan Asal, Aleppo governorate. All of these positions would have to be seized or reduced before the regime could advance without fearing for its supply route.
To maintain the integrity of the M5 route, the loyalist forces would also need to displace the rebels from the immediate area of the highway and leave enough security forces along the route to maintain its ability to function. This would be no easy feat. In fact, in some areas along the M5 highway -- such as Morek, which the rebels seized June 13 -- the rebels are actually advancing.
The regime's second option to reach Aleppo is to skirt the main M5 highway and instead take secondary roads from Salamiyeh to Khanasser, avoiding or defeating the new rebel offensive in the eastern Hama plain. From there, the force would move north to link with the outer reach of the regime position in Tall Sughayb and the Safira defense factory in Aleppo governorate. Even though this route avoids the bulk of rebel forces along the M5 highway, it is not clear that the secondary roads have the capacity to support a large regime offensive. In any case, the rebels have already recognized the potential for this route and have placed some units in a blocking position, ensuring that an advance would not be unopposed.
Complicating the regime's future battle plans even further is the recent U.S. decision to increase the arming of the rebels. There will likely be a combination of more direct aid from the United States and looser restrictions on the quantity and quality of weapons that other states are already providing. The United States is moving toward a more prominent role in arming the rebels, but at least initially its involvement will be heavily tempered by its desire to avoid putting weapons, particularly man-portable air-defense systems, in the hands of extremist groups.
Regime forces are making progress, but they need a victory in Aleppo before they can legitimately claim to be close to undermining the rebellion. In order for the loyalists to seriously threaten the rebel position in Aleppo, they need to be able to reach the area with a force of considerable size and to keep that force supplied.
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